Science is a process, NOT a god

When I was a kid, I loved Ms. Frizzle, oh heck, I still love her… I mean, I practically became her…red hair, crazy science earrings, constant quest to prove that science is fun in the face of all adversity.  

Though, there is one notable difference between me and Ms. Frizzle…she is magic…my science and I sadly, are not. 

 

However, in this most joyful year of 2020, I think my fellow people of earth have forgotten this small fact.  Constantly, on the news, social media, or in casual conversation the word “science” is proclaimed as if it were an omniscient being, that will give us all of the answers should we only kneel before it and beg.  If this is you, then you my dear, need Jesus, not science.  Being intimately acquainted with both, I feel entirely confident in my ability to recommend one over the other.

 

Science does not hold the answer and deliver it at the moment we ask, it does not solve our deepest problems with magic, or tell us only what we want to hear.  Science is a process by which we discover the truth about the world around us.  Did you hear that…I’ll say it again just in case…science is a process.  Like all good processes, there is a method...The Scientific Method.   I went through this last winter with my 7 and 5 year old nephews, so I am confident you can handle it.

 

The Scientific Method consists of:

 

-        Asking a question – Important here, the question must be as simple as possible, provable by some sort of experiment where you can control the environment, reproduce your evidence, and over time hopefully find the answer to your question.

 

-        Forming a hypothesis – An educated guess about what you think the answer to your question will be and no, contrary to what you may have learned in 2020, this will often not match your conclusion (more on this important detail below).

 

-        Designing an experiment – At this stage you design a way to test your hypothesis, making sure the steps are as simple as possible, controlling for as much variability as you can, and that you can repeat them.

 

-        Performing the experiment – Ideally, you run your experiment many, many times.  Keeping excellent notes, running statistical analysis, modifying your experiment as necessary and ALWAYS making sure that your data is reproducible.

 

-        Drawing a conclusion – Again, this may or MAY NOT match your hypothesis.  You must always allow the data uncovered to lead you to the truth, whether or not you like, or wish to believe this truth.

This process takes time, lots and lots of time, the bigger the question and the less that is known on the subject, the more time it takes.  However, we already know a fair amount about a lot of things, so we can also draw on historical knowledge to help us form our hypotheses and draw conclusions from our data.  But remember, EVEN THE HYPOTHESES OF SCIENTISTS ARE NOT ALWAYS CORRECT.  We MUST always go through the process in an objective way.

I have remained, relatively quiet on the topic of the pandemic lately,, not because I don’t have opinions…I most definitely do.  I have stayed quiet because frankly, the whisper of common sense I could offer, felt like a mouse going over Niagara Falls on a leaf…no way is he making it out alive.  So, I have watched, and read, and contemplated, and cried, and become completely enraged at the total bastardization of my one true love…science.  So, let me clear some things up for those of you new to this relationship.

Science Does NOT:

-        Care about your opinion – Whether you believe COVID-19 to be a group hallucination or the absolute WORST disease in the history of the planet.  Science does not care.  The process will give you data and that data (if reviewed objectively) will give you the truth, whether or not that truth hurts your preconceived notions of reality.

 

-        Fear argument or questions – Science is objective, it does not have a dog in the fight.  It wants only information and truth.  You think the outcome of a particular experiment is wrong GREAT!  Design a new one, ask the question in a different way, gather more data, find more truth.

 

-        Settle – There is not phrase that makes my blood boil faster than, ”The science is settled.”  Science does not settle, it will always seek more information, data, questioning.  This is not to say that there are not facts and truths we have already discovered, but science isn’t afraid of your skepticism.  You think there is something new to discover about gravity…fantastic Isaac Newton, have at it…see process detailed above.

 

-        Have emotion – Science is cold and unfeeling.  It does not base it’s conclusion on what makes the population feel safer, or what we really need to hear.  If you want something to make you feel secure in a messed up world I suggest the Bible, a cup of hot tea, and a weighted blanket.

 

-        Change its mind on a whim – As I noted before the process of science takes time, in this time it will produce data, data can be complied for analysis, and that analysis can lead us to a conclusion.  This conclusion will not then change because it is unpopular.  Science is not Glinda…it’s definitely Elphaba and couldn’t care less about the wizard.  Analysis can be open to interpretation, so you may have two people who can look at the same data and draw different conclusions.  Conclusion drawing is sometimes the artsy part of science, so beware the over confident conclusion and if the data doesn’t give you a clear conclusion…yep you guessed it, more questions and back to the process.

 

-        Have a political party – The last point I will make here is really the most crucial for 2020.  There is not a “political party of science.”  Science doesn’t give a crap who you want to be the president, or what you feel is the best structure for government.  It will continue to chug through its process of questions being asked, data being gathered, and conclusions being drawn as if you and your opinion are meaningless…I know….rude.

 

In conclusion, science is a process by which we can find truths, it is not a god.  It is a tool in our tool box we can use to understand and explore the world.  Please, stop worshiping at the altar of science, she can’t handle the pressure to know everything right now….it’s not her process…

Coronavirus by the Numbers: Trying to Discover the Real Amid the Ridiculous

Ok, everyone take a deep breath, through your mask and in your 6 foot bubble away from every other living soul, while admiring the new collection of hand sanitizer and toilet paper piled to your basement ceiling.  Are we feeling good about ourselves America…I certainly hope not!  Personally, I am feeling sick…and not the fever, cough, and shortness of breath kind.

Coronavirus has swept the world and there are some radical and seemingly ridiculous consequences.  Being a person a reason and sense I have been struggling during the last week or so to grip what is happening and during the last 24 hours to not feel like I am living in the Twilight Zone.  With States of Emergency being called for 2 presumed cases, Universities creating web-based lectures on the fly, sporting events taking place with no fans, NBA suspending play, concerts being cancelled, companies mandating employees work from home, and on and on my head is spinning and I am struggling to understand why these radical decisions are being made. 

I have decided there is one way to get my head on straight and feet on solid ground and it is by going back to what I know: science, numbers, and logic.  Let’s see if we can make sense of some of this together.

What do we know?

Johns Hopkins has put together and interactive map of the cases of Coronavirus (COVID-19).  I will use numbers from this site as of 11Mar2020 10pm EST.  This is a live, updating map so the numbers will change and current numbers can be found here.

We know that COVID-19 can be mild or severe, the severe cases are more common in the elderly or those with existing lung issues.  It can resolve at home over a few days or require hospitalization with oxygen supplementation or in rare cases cause respiratory failure.

The transmission of COVID-19, while not yet entirely known, is thought to be highest when the person is most symptomatic.  This is different from the flu in a very positive way.  The flu is most symptomatic 24-48 hours before a person develops symptoms, so COVID-19 being most contagious during the symptomatic period of the disease makes it much easier to avoid.  It is also suspected that transmission is through body fluid contact i.e. someone with the disease sneezing on or in close proximity to you, sneezing or coughing into their hand and touching an object (staircase handrail for instance) then you touching that object and then touching your mouth, nose, eyes, etc.  It is not thought to be airborne, which is also very positive.

How many people are affected?

Again, using the Johns Hopkins Live Interactive Map on 11Mar2020 10pm 125,865 cases have been confirmed in the world.  If we estimate the world’s population at 7.7 billion people (or so Google tells me) this is 0.0016% of the world’s population.  I think we can all agree that the percent is very small at this point.  Let’s explore the numbers a little bit more and see if they can bring us some peace of mind:

Mortality Rate: With any epidemic/pandemic it is crucial to determine the mortality rate or the likelihood that those who catch the disease will die from the disease.  This number is in constant fluctuation right now for COVID-19 because the number of cases are going up each day, people are recovering, and in cases of severe disease people are dying.  Let’s look at some of the numbers though and see what they can tell us:

Overall mortality (again from the Johns Hopkins’ numbers):

There are 2 ways that I see to look at a global level, so let’s looks at each:

1)      Total deaths/Total Confirmed x 100 = 4,615/125,865 x 100  = 3.6%

This gives us an idea of the virus as a whole, every case that has been confirmed verses the number of deaths from the disease.  While likely not entirely accurate, it gives us a place to begin and says that if you are infected there is a 96.4% chance you will recover fully.

2)      Total deaths/(Total Deaths + Total Recovered) x 100 = 4,615/(4,615 + 67,017) x 100 = 6.4%

I personally prefer this method of looking at the disease, because it is the cleanest, however at this point in the disease it is also likely much higher than it will be when all is said and done.  In the above we included people who have not completed the disease course so some will recover and some will unfortunately not, so without knowing the outcome the calculation is projecting them as all recovered.  In the 2^nd calculation we used only people who have completed the disease, so there are no unknowns skewing the data, however the number of cases is very small and the most susceptible and often the severest cases are among the first seen.  It is very likely that as the number of people who have completed the disease grows this percentage will get smaller and smaller.

The other caveat for these numbers is that these are reported cases, since this disease is not always severe, it does not always require medical attention, so there are an unknown number of unreported mild and recovered cases that could change everything above for the better.

All of this being said, even with the 2^nd calculation there is a 93.6% chance you would recover from the disease.

What is the likelihood I catch it?

For this let’s look at the 2 countries most affected and furthest along in the disease, China and Italy.

China:

Confirmed Cases - 80,921

Population of China - 1,408,526,449 (Google Jan 2020 data)

Percentage of people affected in China:  Confirmed Cases/Total Population x 100 = 0.0057%

So, while the disease ran unchecked for the longest period of time in any nation less than 1/100^th of 1% of the population was infected and the numbers of infected are now dropping in China.

Italy:

Confirmed Cases: 12,462

Population of Italy: 60,488,416 (Google current data)

Percentage of people affected in Italy:  Confirmed Cases/Total Population x 100 = 0.020%

This is 2/100ths of a percent.

These are the countries where the disease is being called rampant and running unchecked.  When you look at the math or at least when my geeky self does, it brings me peace.  Now, I am certainly not saying you should fly to Wuhan China and lick a handrail.  In fact, the common-sense advice given to us is spot on and really just good practice all the time:

-         -  Wash your hands regularly and for 20 seconds with soap and warm water

-        -   Be aware of what you touch, place food on, etc. when in public

-          - If you are sick stay home

The instillation of fear is really what I am trying to combat, it is important to note that there are definite populations where the disease takes a more serious course, the elderly and those with lung issues.  If you do not fall into one of these categories you do not need to be afraid, even if you get the virus it will likely be a mild case. 

It is also good to look at the bigger picture and see that the percentages of infected people are very, very low when looking at the entire population of a country or state.  We should take precautions, as noted above, much like we should during a normal flu season (or at any time because out in public is a germy, disgusting mess), but we need not stop our lives, fill our minds with fear and worry, and line the pockets of the execs at Purell and Charmin.  Stop, breathe, use common sense, and recognize that we are not doomed.