Coronavirus by the Numbers: Trying to Discover the Real Amid the Ridiculous

Ok, everyone take a deep breath, through your mask and in your 6 foot bubble away from every other living soul, while admiring the new collection of hand sanitizer and toilet paper piled to your basement ceiling.  Are we feeling good about ourselves America…I certainly hope not!  Personally, I am feeling sick…and not the fever, cough, and shortness of breath kind.

Coronavirus has swept the world and there are some radical and seemingly ridiculous consequences.  Being a person a reason and sense I have been struggling during the last week or so to grip what is happening and during the last 24 hours to not feel like I am living in the Twilight Zone.  With States of Emergency being called for 2 presumed cases, Universities creating web-based lectures on the fly, sporting events taking place with no fans, NBA suspending play, concerts being cancelled, companies mandating employees work from home, and on and on my head is spinning and I am struggling to understand why these radical decisions are being made. 

I have decided there is one way to get my head on straight and feet on solid ground and it is by going back to what I know: science, numbers, and logic.  Let’s see if we can make sense of some of this together.

What do we know?

Johns Hopkins has put together and interactive map of the cases of Coronavirus (COVID-19).  I will use numbers from this site as of 11Mar2020 10pm EST.  This is a live, updating map so the numbers will change and current numbers can be found here.

We know that COVID-19 can be mild or severe, the severe cases are more common in the elderly or those with existing lung issues.  It can resolve at home over a few days or require hospitalization with oxygen supplementation or in rare cases cause respiratory failure.

The transmission of COVID-19, while not yet entirely known, is thought to be highest when the person is most symptomatic.  This is different from the flu in a very positive way.  The flu is most symptomatic 24-48 hours before a person develops symptoms, so COVID-19 being most contagious during the symptomatic period of the disease makes it much easier to avoid.  It is also suspected that transmission is through body fluid contact i.e. someone with the disease sneezing on or in close proximity to you, sneezing or coughing into their hand and touching an object (staircase handrail for instance) then you touching that object and then touching your mouth, nose, eyes, etc.  It is not thought to be airborne, which is also very positive.

How many people are affected?

Again, using the Johns Hopkins Live Interactive Map on 11Mar2020 10pm 125,865 cases have been confirmed in the world.  If we estimate the world’s population at 7.7 billion people (or so Google tells me) this is 0.0016% of the world’s population.  I think we can all agree that the percent is very small at this point.  Let’s explore the numbers a little bit more and see if they can bring us some peace of mind:

Mortality Rate: With any epidemic/pandemic it is crucial to determine the mortality rate or the likelihood that those who catch the disease will die from the disease.  This number is in constant fluctuation right now for COVID-19 because the number of cases are going up each day, people are recovering, and in cases of severe disease people are dying.  Let’s look at some of the numbers though and see what they can tell us:

Overall mortality (again from the Johns Hopkins’ numbers):

There are 2 ways that I see to look at a global level, so let’s looks at each:

1)      Total deaths/Total Confirmed x 100 = 4,615/125,865 x 100  = 3.6%

This gives us an idea of the virus as a whole, every case that has been confirmed verses the number of deaths from the disease.  While likely not entirely accurate, it gives us a place to begin and says that if you are infected there is a 96.4% chance you will recover fully.

2)      Total deaths/(Total Deaths + Total Recovered) x 100 = 4,615/(4,615 + 67,017) x 100 = 6.4%

I personally prefer this method of looking at the disease, because it is the cleanest, however at this point in the disease it is also likely much higher than it will be when all is said and done.  In the above we included people who have not completed the disease course so some will recover and some will unfortunately not, so without knowing the outcome the calculation is projecting them as all recovered.  In the 2^nd calculation we used only people who have completed the disease, so there are no unknowns skewing the data, however the number of cases is very small and the most susceptible and often the severest cases are among the first seen.  It is very likely that as the number of people who have completed the disease grows this percentage will get smaller and smaller.

The other caveat for these numbers is that these are reported cases, since this disease is not always severe, it does not always require medical attention, so there are an unknown number of unreported mild and recovered cases that could change everything above for the better.

All of this being said, even with the 2^nd calculation there is a 93.6% chance you would recover from the disease.

What is the likelihood I catch it?

For this let’s look at the 2 countries most affected and furthest along in the disease, China and Italy.

China:

Confirmed Cases - 80,921

Population of China - 1,408,526,449 (Google Jan 2020 data)

Percentage of people affected in China:  Confirmed Cases/Total Population x 100 = 0.0057%

So, while the disease ran unchecked for the longest period of time in any nation less than 1/100^th of 1% of the population was infected and the numbers of infected are now dropping in China.

Italy:

Confirmed Cases: 12,462

Population of Italy: 60,488,416 (Google current data)

Percentage of people affected in Italy:  Confirmed Cases/Total Population x 100 = 0.020%

This is 2/100ths of a percent.

These are the countries where the disease is being called rampant and running unchecked.  When you look at the math or at least when my geeky self does, it brings me peace.  Now, I am certainly not saying you should fly to Wuhan China and lick a handrail.  In fact, the common-sense advice given to us is spot on and really just good practice all the time:

-         -  Wash your hands regularly and for 20 seconds with soap and warm water

-        -   Be aware of what you touch, place food on, etc. when in public

-          - If you are sick stay home

The instillation of fear is really what I am trying to combat, it is important to note that there are definite populations where the disease takes a more serious course, the elderly and those with lung issues.  If you do not fall into one of these categories you do not need to be afraid, even if you get the virus it will likely be a mild case. 

It is also good to look at the bigger picture and see that the percentages of infected people are very, very low when looking at the entire population of a country or state.  We should take precautions, as noted above, much like we should during a normal flu season (or at any time because out in public is a germy, disgusting mess), but we need not stop our lives, fill our minds with fear and worry, and line the pockets of the execs at Purell and Charmin.  Stop, breathe, use common sense, and recognize that we are not doomed.